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New Yorkers will find out the identity of their next mayor this Tuesday, in a contest that will decide who runs and protects the country's largest city at a time when the former president has threatened to deploy military troops to the city.

Against that backdrop, New York has witnessed a mayoral election that has matched two very different Democratic figures against one another. The contest has turned into an increasingly bitter face-off, marked by accusations of racism and anti-Muslim sentiment, but it is the political differences between the two main contenders that could have significant consequences for how the Democratic party fares in next year's midterm elections.

The Progressive Challenger

In the progressive corner is Zohran Mamdani, the 34-year-old democratic socialist whose meteoric rise and grassroots campaign has attracted international attention. Representing the old guard is the former governor, the ex- Democratic New York governor now running as an independent – and benefiting from the support of wealthy contributors and big business.

As the election approaches, it is Mamdani, the former longshot who beat Cuomo in the Democratic primary who is firmly installed as the leading candidate. The candidate, who has run on a platform of economic justice and promised to freeze rent for about 2 million city residents, has outpaced his rival by significant margins in every poll taken in October, and it is very much the younger man's race to lose.

A Bitter Contest

Yet, the former governor, who stepped down as governor in 2021 amid accusations of sexual harassment, has made it clear he will battle to the end, and not necessarily in an above-the-belt manner. He has trashed his opponent's goals as unachievable, and in the final stretch laughed as a radio host made Islamophobic remarks about the candidate, who is Muslim. Two weeks ago, Cuomo was strongly criticized as racist after sharing an artificial intelligence video that featured a series of racist stereotypes and showed his opponent freeing a convicts.

It's been a rather grubby conclusion to an race that could be critical to the path that the Democratic party, floundering in its reaction to Trump's authoritarian grabs, adopts in the near future.

Broader Consequences

If the progressive wins convincingly, the party establishment who have refused to endorse his campaign will be forced to reckon with a message that has resonated with Americans' frustration at economic disparity, soaring price rises and the establishment. It would be hard for the Senate leader and the House leader not to adopt at least a portion of Mamdani's ambitious ideas about economic justice, given the fresh face has generated an excitement within the Democratic ranks arguably not seen since Bernie Sanders campaigned for the White House in 2016.

However, should the former governor, who had been expected to win easily in the Democratic primary, achieve a surprising riches-to-rags-to-riches win, it could reinforce national Democrats' current model of considered, uninspiring resistance – a strategy that has infuriated grassroots members. A New York rejection of Mamdani's progressive, positive message could persuade party leaders that the best plan is to remain in the political center – even as surveys show the current iteration of the Democratic party is widely disliked across the country.

Campaign Energy

Voters in New York seem to prefer the Mamdani vision. Polls show that Mamdani supporters are much more excited about their choice than Cuomo backers, something that has been evident throughout the campaign. Mamdani's snappy videos on social media, his hopeful outlook for New York and his readiness to actually venture out and connect with voters in the city has attracted an army of over fifty thousand volunteers, many of them youth or first-time voters.

Negative Tactics

However, the former governor, in his late sixties, isn't giving up. And with the risks against him, the former governor has resorted to negative campaigning in the final days.

Following extensive launching various attacks at Mamdani to see what might stick, the independent has concentrated on targeting the candidate directly. He has labelled his rival, who was born in Uganda to Indian parents, an "radical", and appeared on conservative media for an interview with a rightwing host, where the candidate claimed the city “will not survive” Mamdani as mayor. It hit bottom recently, when the former governor laughed along and said “that’s another problem” after a radio host said the candidate would “cheer” another terrorist attack.

Political Landscape

This strategy mirrors much of what the former president, who has deployed the national guard to Washington DC and threatened to do the same to New York, has said about the progressive, and maybe that shouldn’t come as a surprise. A group of billionaire New Yorkers, including some who contributed to the Republican in the 2024 election, have pumped millions into trying to get Cuomo elected, as other influential figures have pressured the Republican candidate to drop out from the contest.

Political Histories

For the his team, and his billionaire supporters, are worried, it should never have come to this point. When Mamdani, one of 150 state legislators, launched his mayoral bid in last year, few had heard of him, and in truth, barely anyone even paid attention.

The former governor, by contrast, entered smoothly into the contest in this year and became the instant favorite. He was the political heavyweight who apparently held every edge. The quintessential political insider, he had wed a Kennedy and served in Bill Clinton’s administration. He became New York governor in over a decade ago, seventeen years after his parent, Mario Cuomo, stepped down from the identical role.

The progressive, who was voted in to the state legislature in 2020, does not have the comparable background. But his commitment to providing no-cost transit and affordable child services – along with the freeze-the-rent pledge – present a more positive vision of the future than his opponent's pessimistic predictions about “mayhem” and rising criminal activity, and his promise to increase police presence.

Recent Challenges

Nevertheless, the candidate has encountered some challenges in recent days, after footage surfaced suggesting him suggesting the New York police department and the Israel Defense Forces were intertwined.

“We have to make clear that when the pressure of the police is on your throat, it’s been laced by the IDF,” Mamdani said in the recording, filmed at a DSA gathering in 2023. The progressive, a vocal opponent of Israel who has said the nation is engaging in atrocities in Gaza, suggested he was criticizing joint training exercises between the NYPD and IDF.

Powerful Moment

With the election nearing, the candidate seems to have gained sympathy and support, however, for his response to his opponent's escalating attacks.

The progressive responded to Cuomo’s 9/11 remarks in an heartfelt recording. In it, the candidate recalled how, when he first ran for the legislature, a Muslim uncle advised to him that he did not have to disclose about his religion. It was a realization, he said, that many local Muslims had been told “again and again”: “That safety could only be found in the shadows of our community. That it is in those shadows alone where followers of Islam could express their true selves, and that if we were to emerge from those shadows, then it is in those silence that we must set aside our faith.”

Addressing the actions of his opponents, who has claimed Mamd