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Within the widespread uncertainty regarding the United States attacks on Venezuela, the seizure of President Nicolás Maduro, and statements from Trump that the US will “run” the country and “seize control of the oil”, one thing is clear – this establishes a deeply alarming precedent.

A Dark Legacy and an Unprecedented Move

The United States carries a troubling legacy of meddling, military incursions, and control in the region, but this past Saturday morning marked its premier large-scale offensive on the soil of a South American nation. “The preeminence of America in this region is now beyond dispute,” Trump proclaimed.

The decision to unilaterally attack another independent nation and capture its head of state – just a short time after he openly looked for a diplomatic solution – has still wider repercussions. We all have reason to be worried.

Profound Uncertainty for Venezuela

Venezuelans have suffered under an oppressive, corrupt, and inept government under Mr Maduro, commonly thought to have stolen the last election. They now face extreme instability in the best case. Mr Trump has remarked that Maduro's second-in-command, Delcy Rodríguez would comply with American demands, and brushed aside prominent critic and Nobel prize-winner María Corina Machado as a credible successor.

However, Ms Rodríguez, now the temporary head of state, has so far adopted a posture of resistance – and other parts of the headless administration are far more intransigent.

The Superpower as Rogue State

A man who came to office promising to abandon foreign wars now says he is “not afraid of boots on the ground”. Redesignating the Department of Defense as the Department of War was more than posturing. He does not see the world’s superpower as a international peacekeeper; he is converting it into a lawless actor.

He is convinced that the US’s might allows it to do as it wishes with minimal cost: witness the attacks in Nigeria and against Iranian nuclear sites. He asserts that the oil resources of Venezuela means this latest episode “won’t cost us a penny”.

An Illegal Assault on Sovereignty

George W. Bush invaded Iraq on a lie. But this action without legal basis came lacking any form of UN approval or congressional approval; Democrats were not even informed and say they were given false information in briefings. Mr Trump doesn’t seek to bend international norms, but to shatter them.

Put aside the implication this carries to Vladimir Putin, Xi Jinping and others, and question the future path of the United States. While the raid reportedly killed 40 Venezuelans, including civilians, not a single US soldier was lost. Mr Trump’s growing sense of invincibility will surely embolden more reckless actions.

The Thin Pretext and True Motives

It is widely rejected the justification that this is about drugs. Venezuela is only a minor conduit for cocaine; Mr Trump recently granted clemency to the past Honduran leader Juan Orlando Hernández for narcotics and arms offenses. Mr Trump himself has stated plainly that he is motivated by the allure of petroleum resources as well as machismo, the worldview of key officials, and the appetite for triumphalism as his support at home declines.

Tepid International Response and Waning Global Governance

The international response, especially in Europe, has – with a few principled deviations – been shockingly muted. That’s not due to Mr Maduro’s sins, but trepidation regarding Mr Trump’s wrath. The firm response from UN Secretary General António Guterres was notable, but this episode underscores the waning power of international bodies.

Mr Trump’s anti-interventionist domestic base could yet press him to redirect his gaze inward – but rising medical costs, public anxiety over the economy and distracting files make foreign conflicts more appealing.

Barely 12 months into his presidential term. World leaders may come to rue the day if they remain quiet at this juncture, considering the potential next target.