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Usually, the NFL's Coach of the Year honor follows a straightforward formula. It frequently serves as a type of mea culpa. Sorry we underestimated your franchise in our pre-campaign forecasts.

In theory, it's a direct trajectory: the coach who orchestrated the biggest improvement wins the prize. In practice, it sparks an yearly argument about preseason outlooks and whether we're actually rewarding excellent leadership or just the greatest surprise.

But the latest race is fundamentally unique. The pool of contenders is exceptionally deep. It has been the season of comebacks. The NFL has been unpredictable, with reigning division winners falling away and longtime underperformers rising together. Under an ordinary year, a coach leading the Denver Broncos to the summit of the conference would make him the stone-cold front-runner. But in such a turbulent and thrilling season, he's up against several other outstanding coaches.

Here is how the projected ballot could be structured.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, His Team, Their Record

Coach of the Year voters are fascinated by signal-callers. They always have. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. Should you fix a franchise QB, you're well on your way home.

The Bears' head coach didn't merely corrected Caleb Williams; he's unleashed him. In the right system, Williams has been given the opportunity to demonstrate his otherworldly ability. From Week 9, the Chicago offense sit at number four in offensive EPA per play. That's not a lucky run – it's sustained excellence. Under his guidance, Williams has become more confident, less reckless, and has eagerly submitted to the system instead of going rogue. It is an attack built entirely in Johnson's vision: a bully-ball run game, a consistent dose of play-action passes and a innovative aerial game that springs wide-open receivers consistently. Williams has thrived. And when clear throws weren't there, he's been able to conjure big plays from broken plays.

The coach arrived to the Bears with a specific offensive blueprint. Almost each gamble – overhauling the offensive line, featuring the tight ends, turning Williams into a rhythm thrower – has worked. That's uncommon for a first-year skipper. And it's rarer yet for a leader who entered the building with the immense expectations Johnson did. For two straight offseasons, he was the top name on the coaching market. But when it comes to selecting a head coach, there are zero sure things. Somehow, Johnson has lived up to expectations – and even surpassed them. He's proven not only to be a scheme wizard but the kind of culture builder that can breathe fresh energy into an organization.

In a ordinary season, he would be the runaway choice. But this is not a normal year!

Where his candidacy comes a bit unstuck is on defense. The Bears currently rank 25th in defensive success rate. They are surviving on takeaways, and turnovers are famously inconsistent. Defensive minds can emphasise creating turnovers, but no one can ensure it. Johnson is on the list because the offensive production is legitimate. He's ranked lower because variance is doing an outsized share of the defense's work. If not for a couple bounces of the ball, the team would be two wins behind. It's been an exceptional transformation, and the foundation is established for sustained winning. However Johnson falls short in this ranking.

4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable position to his counterpart. He's a fellow rookie head coach who has engineered a swift resurgence. Over the stretch run of the year, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the most complete all-around football of his professional life. And he's also overseen the transformation of a defensive unit that now ranks fifth in the league in Expected Points Added per play.

What's more notably, Coen has mastered the leadership stuff, which wasn't a given after his early public introduction and some of his preseason decisions.

The coach took over the Jaguars with an exceptionally raw staff. In contrast to Johnson, who surrounded their staff with the ideal staff mix of youth and veteran savvy, he trusted newbies. From the leader on down to assistants to position coaches, the Jaguars are stocked with rookies. That kind of setup is exciting on paper, but frequently fails in practice – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everyone is learning a their job in real-time. But Coen has managed to bring everyone and all elements into sync.

After an early hot start, there was a possibility that the campaign would veer off the rails. A mid-year setback caused the Jags wobbling once more. That's typically when coaches panic and change too much. Coen did not. Rather, he simplified the approach. The offense stopped chasing explosive plays and started hunting reliable ones. The coach recentered the attack around key players and the running game, and asked his QB to use his mobility more often.

The results are clear. The Jaguars have won seven games in a row and will be the AFC's No 3 playoff seed. Coen receives the tiniest knock in the standings because he inherited a talented team, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that talent.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, His Team, Their Record

Every Strong of the Year argument has a pivotal moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB decision.

Parting ways from a veteran, bringing in a new quarterback and pairing him with an innovative offensive coordinator might have derailed the season in October. Rather, it made it. Through the middle point of the season, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player candidate. He has fallen away after that hot streak, dropping to a lower rank in EPA per pass attempt over the second half of the season, placing him only a single spot ahead of peers.

Still