Ten years after the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that divided the nation and unleashed disorder, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is prepared.
That is the message from two leading writers from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly fraught and transformative referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have studied the governmental, economic and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the topic with a tour of lectures that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns all parties, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose results have not been clarified because then you end up with an highly split population where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the those successful are uncertain precisely what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim that moment is approaching, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, making it uncertain whether or when there could be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has masked the shortage of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has occurred in academia but very few government figures or campaigners are willing to participate with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, none of the commentators supports unification or the current situation. Each authors two pieces that strive for neutrality in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument against, assembling economic and societal data, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Discussions encompass national emblems, taxes, healthcare systems, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to educate and stimulate discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there has not yet occurred a discussion," stated the writer. "Debate indicates an recognition of the concept that there may exist good arguments on each side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they prefer unification but reject paying higher taxes or implementing a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government must establish what the plan from nationalist groups is beyond just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride believes a national vote in his generation is probable and that it could happen suddenly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a bad or a incompetent secretary of state who declares: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have credible, legitimate points, he said. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and somebody will eventually be defeated but all factions has has important lessons to gain from the other's arguments."
Request for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster must engage with the debate, stated the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish issue."
